基于GIS的西安市城市扩展与模拟研究

本文以西安市为研究区域,以2002年ETM影像和2007年TM影像遥感数据为城市扩展动态变化的主要信息来源,采用逻辑回归模型并结合GIS技术对西安市的城市空间扩展进行模拟。研究选取了道路、河流、地裂缝、地面沉降、人口和GDP等6个因子,建立了西安市城市扩展的逻辑回归模型,并根据所建立的模型对西安市的城市扩展进行了模拟,结果表明,所建立的逻辑回归模型能够较好地模拟西安市的城市扩展,对西安市城市扩展的驱动力具有较强的解释作用,其中对城市扩展影响最重要的因素为距道路距离。

A STUDY ON CONSTRUCTION LAND EXTENSION AND SIMULATION OF XI'AN CITY BASED ON GIS IN XI' AN CITY

With the rapid development of China, urban sprawl has become a major issue in many metropolitan areas. However, the definition of urban sprawl is still controversial and its impact on urban development has not been identified clearly. The authors consider that urban sprawl refers to the uncontrolled or scattered development in suburban areas which leads to increasing traffic problems, resource depletion and open space destruction. Therefore, it is necessary to explore the urban extension process and the driving force of urban sprawl. This research aims to analyze the driving force of urban extension through the logistic regression analysis. The remote sensing and geographic information system are adopted in the research. Based on the Landsat TM/ETM images of Xi'an city in 2002 and 2007, the authors have the construction land information. Therefore, they can draw out the construction land map with the GIS technology and the sprawl information. Based on the analysis of road, river, land subsidence, ground fissure, population and GDP, the authors build up the logistic regression model to simulate the urban extension of Xi'an city. With the logistic regression model, the researchers obtain a simulation map for the urban extension of Xi'an city. The result shows that the areas of construction land are increasing that is consistent with the factual urban extension. Therefore, the special models can identify the main driving forces of urban extension in Xi'an city through validation of the logistic regression model. The authors point out that the accessibility of the roads is the most significant driving force of urban extension. Finally, the authors also note that there are many factors which can restrict the application of the urban extension model because the urban sprawl is a complex phenomenon. Therefore, the advanced urban extension model should be established with the consideration of government policies and residents' behaviors.