FIRE IN THE BRAZILIAN AMAZON: A SPATIALLY EXPLICIT MODEL FOR POLICY IMPACT ANALYSIS* |
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| Authors: | Eugenio Y Arima Cynthia S Simmons Robert T Walker Mark A Cochrane |
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| Institution: | Department of Environmental Studies, Hobart and William Smith Colleges and Instituto do Homem e Meio Ambiente da Amazônia, Brazil, 318 Stern Hall, Geneva, NY 14456. E-mail:; Department of Geography, Michigan State University, 231 Geography Building, East Lansing, MI 48824. E-mail:; Department of Geography, Michigan State University, 116 Geography Building, East Lansing, MI 48824. E-mail:; GIScience Center of Excellence, South Dakota State University, 1021 Medary Ave., Wecota Hall, Box 506B, Brookings, SD 57007. E-mail: |
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| Abstract: | ABSTRACT. This article implements a spatially explicit model to estimate the probability of forest and agricultural fires in the Brazilian Amazon. We innovate by using variables that reflect farm-gate prices of beef and soy, and also provide a conceptual model of field management and deforestation fires to simulate the impact of road-paving, cattle exports, and conservation area designation on the occurrence of fire. Our analysis shows that fire is positively correlated with the price of beef and soy, and that the creation of new conservation units may offset the negative environmental impacts caused by the increasing number of fire events associated with early stages of frontier development. |
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