福建省PRED系统评价与协调发展研究

区域PRED系统可持续发展是当今世界各国普遍关心的重大课题。本文在借鉴国内外区域PRED系统评价指标体系研究成果的基础上,依据可持续发展指标体系建立的原则,结合福建省的具体情况建立福建省PRED系统评价指标体系,通过计算,分析福建省1995-2004年PRED各子系统及总系统的发展状况和趋势,对系统之间的相关性进行研究,并进行协调性分析,提出协调福建省PRED系统的方法和措施,以达到福建省PRED系统的协调发展。

THE ASSESSMENT OF THE PRED SYSTEM IN FUJIAN PROVINCE AND ITS COORDINATIVE DEVELOPMENT STUDY

Sustainable development of the regional PRED system is one of the most important issues demanding much attention from countries around the world today. The assessment indicator system of sustainable development of regional PRED system requires to estimate the harmonious development of the population(P), resources(R), environment(E) and economic development(D). How to ameliorate the PRED system of Fujian province is one of the most important issues with the hight economic development of Fujian since the open and reform in China.Based on the achievements of the assessment indicator system of regional PRED system made both at home and abroad and combined with the practical conditions of Fujian province according to the general principle of sustainable development, the assessment indicator system of Fujian PRED system has been investigated on the basis of the 42 selected indicators in aspects of population, resources, environment and economic development in this paper.
This paper, also, puts forward a development index model of a standard transform for indicators, and proposes a development potential concept and its assessment method to describe the dynamic features of the quantitative measurement for the harmonious development of the PRED system. In addition, this paper has adopted the method of determining the index weight by the subsystem and two-level system of the factor analysis together with linear weighting method to synthesize multi-indicators and undertake a harmonious analysis based on the related ones. By the simple mathematical calculation the authors analyze the developmental situation and tendency of the PRED system and subsystems in Fujian province since 1995, study the relations among its coordinative development, and raise some measures and ways to harmonize the PRED system. According to the data in question from the year 1995 to 2004 in Fujian province and by calculation, this paper draws a conclusion that the development potential of the subsystem of population and economic development and its PRED has presented a rising feature while that of environment and resources, a swinging feature. The research shows that the subsystem of resources is a bit out of harmony with the subsystems of environment, population and economic development, the subsystem of environment is in a certain harmony with the subsystems of population and economic development and the subsystem of population is in a good harmony with that of economic development; PRED is in harmony with the subsystems of economic development, population and environment but is out of harmony with the subsystem of resources. Accordingly, this paper advances some methods and measures to ameliorate the PRED system of Fujian province so as to facilitate the harmonious development of the PRED system in Fujian.