Immigration and Net Migration in New York City 1980–90

The relationship between immigration and the net migration of the native-born is an important component of the overall impact of immigration. Prior analyses of cross-sectional state and Metropolitan Statistical Area data suggest that a negative relationship exists, particularly among those with relatively little education. At the national level, much attention has been paid to the potential ethnic segregation of the population as primarily non-White immigrants displace primarily White native-born residents from certain areas, but there are important state and local policy issues as well, as this population shift has potentially significant implications for demand for municipal services and school enrollment. Yet until now, there has been no attempt to examine this relationship for a particular metro area. This article provides some preliminary estimates of the relationship between immigration and the migration of the native-born in New York City between 1980 and 1990 using a census survival methodology and zip code-level data. Initial results suggest a statistically significant negative relationship between immigration and net migration of the native-born. The policy implications of this phenomenon are discussed briefly.