The changing structural base of Australian politics since 1946

There has been a continuing debate in Australia about the declining political importance of traditional social cleavages, such as class and religion, since the end of the Second World War. While some scholars have argued that class has declined in political importance, others have presented contrary evidence. In this paper, we eliminate some substantive and methodological problems that have clouded this debate and use multivariate analysis to re‐assess the evidence for the decline of traditional cleavages across class and religious boundaries in Australia. Our results show that there was no decline in class voting in Australia until after the middle of the 1960s. The decline since then has been less steep than others have suggested. On the other hand, the traditional cleavage between Catholics and Protestants weakened significantly during the same period, as did Labor's disadvantage among women. Strong cohort effects may have exaggerated the apparent decline in class voting, which, while weaker in the 1980s than it was in the 1940s and 1960s, remains the strongest structural cleavage in Australian politics.