| Abstract: | It is often assumed that the problem of electoral participation in Australia has been solved with an entrenched regime of compulsion in enrolment and voting. In recent elections, however, one-fifth of eligible Australians failed to cast a valid vote. This study aims to identify those demographic groups which contribute to this substantial rate of abstention. The authors used Random Forests to model the effects of demographic factors on voter turnout in three Australian state general elections. Results suggest that resource barriers have been generally surmounted, but lower levels of population stability and interaction contribute to a decline in electoral participation. These findings have implications for electoral administration, urban form and compulsion itself. 人们经常说,澳大利益选举参与度的问题已经通过强制性投票解决了。不过在近年的选举中,有五分之一的适龄澳大利亚人没有进行有效投票。本文意在探讨哪些人群造成了如此大比例的弃权。作者使用“随机森林”分析了人口因素对三个州普选结果的影响。结果表明,资源障碍一般说是消除了,但较低的人口稳定与互动水平导致了人们对选举的消极态度。这个发现对于选举的管理、城市的形态以及强制本身都有着参考价值。 |
