Density and dispersion: the co-development of land use and rail in London

This article examines the changes that occurred in the railnetwork and density of population in London during the 19thand 20th centuries. It aims to disentangle the ‘chickenand egg’ problem of which came first, network or landdevelopment, through a set of statistical analyses clearly distinguishingevents by order. Using panel data representing the 33 boroughsof London over each decade from 1871 to 2001, the research findsthat there is a positive feedback effect between populationdensity and network density. Additional rail stations (eitherUnderground or surface) are positive factors leading to subsequentincreases in population in the suburbs of London, while additionalpopulation density is a factor in subsequently deploying morerail. These effects differ in central London, where the additionalaccessibility produced by rail led to commercial developmentand concomitant depopulation. There are also differences inthe effects associated with surface rail stations and Undergroundstations, as the Underground was able to get into central Londonin a way that surface rail could not. However, the two networkswere weak (and statistically insignificant) substitutes foreach other in the suburbs, while the density of surface railstations was a complement to the Underground in the center,though not vice versa.