Recipe for predicting the IMF Bz polarity's change of direction following solar disturbances and at the onset of geomagnetic storms |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Institute of Space Science, National Central University, Chung-Li, Taiwan, R.O.C.;2. NOAA Space Environment Center, R/E/SE, 325 Broadway, Boulder, CO 80303, U.S.A.;3. Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), University of Colorado in Boulder, Boulder, CO 80309, U.S.A.;4. Center for Space Plasma and Aeronomic Research, and Department of Mechanical Engineering, The University of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL 35899, U.S.A.;1. Geophysical Center Russian Academy of Science, 3 Molodezhnaya Str., 119296 Moscow, Russia;2. Space Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Science, 84/32 Profsoyuznaya Str, 117997 Moscow, Russia;3. State Transport University, 9 Moskovsky Pr., 190031 Saint Petersburg, Russia;4. Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris, Sorbonne Paris Cite, Universite Paris Diderot, CNRS, F-75005 Paris, France;1. Beijing Key Laboratory of Transportation Engineering, Beijing University of Technology, 100 Pingleyuan, Chaoyang District, Beijing 100124, China;2. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University. Blacksburg, VA 24061, USA;1. Key Laboratory of Pharmaceutical Quality Control of Hebei Province, College of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Hebei University, Baoding 071002, China;2. Key Laboratory of Medical Chemistry and Molecular Diagnosis, Ministry of Education, Hebei University, Baoding 071002, China;3. Departments of Neuroscience, University of Connecticut Health Center, Farmington, Connecticut 06030;5. Departments of Molecular Biology and Biophysics, University of Connecticut Health Center, Farmington, Connecticut 06030;4. Institute of Biomedicine/Anatomy, University of Helsinki, FIN-00014, Helsinki, Finland;1. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, MD, 20771, USA;2. The Catholic University of America, Washington DC, 20064, USA |
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| Abstract: | A three-dimensional, time-dependent, MHD model of solar-disturbance-caused storms (Wu, 1993; Wu et al., 1996a) is used to predict the turning direction of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) at Earth. More explicitly, we examine the polarity of Bz caused by solar disturbances on the Sun. Three manifestations of solar disturbances, as studied by previous workers, are examined. Firstly, twenty-nine kilometric Type II events, associated (Cane, 1985) with geomagnetic storms, are studied within the context of our three-dimensional model. Then, an additional eleven long-duration X-ray events (LDEs) with radio fluxes greater than 100 solar flux units were examined; these events were not associated with interplanetary Type II events but were also associated (Cane, 1985) with geomagnetic storms. Finally, in situ interplanetary phenomena that caused ten large (Dst < −100 nT, the intensification of the storm) geomagnetic storm episodes (Tsurutani et al., 1988) near solar maximum are also studied via the Bz predictions of our 3D MHD model. The accuracy of these Bz turning-direction-predictions is found to be as follows: (1) for the kilometric Type II events, the model's prediction was successful for 26 of the 29 events studied; (2) 10/11 for the LDE events; and (3) 7/9 for the major geomagnetic storm events. The overall prediction accuracy of these three independent data sets is 43/49. Thus, consideration of these three independent data sets strongly suggests that the recipe proposed by the basic 3D MHD model may be valid for a zero-th order prediction scheme. |
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