ECONOMIC ‘LONG WAVES’IN the ROMAN PERIOD? A RECONNAISSANCE of the ROMANO-BRITISH CERAMIC EVIDENCE

Summary: This paper explores some problems of Romano British ceramic chronology and puts forward the suggestion that pottery production in Roman Britain rose and fell in a series of cyclical phases. the pattern matches that of Samian production and also the increases and decreases in the speed (velocity) with which silver coinage circulated in the 1st to early 3rd centuries AD and after. It is suggested that these data can be used to trace the progress of a multisecular cycle the effects of which may also be detectable across the Roman world-economy as a whole. the archaeological and historical implications of this pattern - which may be perceived in the Iron Age and the Post Roman periods, are discussed and a possible explanation is advanced for it. Some quantification methods which would help support or refute the hypothesis are considered and a way of reconciling pottery and context dates is presented.