1995-2010年中国省际人口迁移态势与空间格局演变——基于社会网络分析的视角

采用第五次人口普查、2005年人口抽样调查和第六次人口普查数据,基于社会网络分析的视角,研究了省级尺度下中国人口迁移态势与空间格局演变特征。结果显示:(1)1995-2010年间,中国人口迁移规模迅速增大,省际间人口迁移规模差异明显;上海、浙江人口迁入率显著上升,河南、安徽人口迁出率显著上升。(2)北京、上海、安徽、四川等13省是我国人口迁移网络的核心节点,人口迁移网络表现出中心性、收敛性和地区非均衡性特点。(3)京津地区、长三角地区、广东是我国主要人口辐合流场,安徽、四川、河南、湖南等中部省份是我国主要人口辐散流场。研究表明,不同地区的人口迁移有显著的空间异质性,各地应根据自身人口迁移趋势及在全国人口迁移网络中角色,科学制定区域人口政策与经济社会发展规划。

THE VOLUME CHANGES AND SPATIAL PATTERN DYNAMICS OF CHINA'S INTERPROVINCIAL MIGRATION: A PERSPECTIVE OF SOCIAL NETWORK ANALYSIS

Migration facilitates mobility of social resources, having a direct effect on national and regional development. Accordingly, it has been a long-lasting research topic. However, few research depicts the successive changes of China's recent migration. Furthermore, existing publications fail to reveal the network characteristics of China's migration. Here we analyzed the volume changes and spatial pattern dynamics of China's interprovincial migration from 1995 to 2010, adopting the social network analysis. The data derived from 2000 National Population Census, 2005 1% Population Sample Survey, and 2010 National Population Census were employed. Results show:1) The migration volume in China has been increasing sharply since 1995, with enormous quantity gap between different provinces. The in-migration rates of Shanghai and Jiangsu have saw a stable increase trend; furthermore, the out-migration rates of Henan and Anhui have undergone a remarkable increase trend. 2) The migration network in China has thirteen core nodes like Beijing, Shanghai, Anhui, Sichuan and so on, which is characterized by coherence, convergence and regional disequilibrium. 3) Three dominating migration destinations in China are located in Beijing-Tianjin Metropolitan Region, Yangtze River Delta and Guangdong province, while most key origins are central provinces, like Anhui, Sichuan, Henan, Hunan etc. Our findings suggest that there are significant spatial variations of China's interprovincial migration, hence the population policy at each province should be adapted accordingly so to achieve coordinated development.