中国妇女发展脆弱性：测度、时空演化及驱动机制

借鉴人类发展指数（HDI），从健康、教育及就业三大维度构建中国妇女发展脆弱性评估模型。以妇女发展脆弱性指数为测度指标，运用变异系数、LISA时间路径和时空跃迁等方法，对2006—2016年中国妇女发展状况的区域差异、空间分布和时空交互特征进行分析，并利用计量经济学模型探讨其影响机制。结果表明：①2006—2016年，中国妇女发展脆弱性总体上呈下降趋势，区域差异在波动中逐渐扩大。在区域尺度上，东部地区较低，中部和东北地区次之，西部地区最高。东部地区内部差异显著，呈现两极化；②脆弱性类型以低和较低脆弱类型为主，大致以“胡焕庸线”为界，西北半壁妇女发展脆弱性显著偏高；③中国妇女发展脆弱性空间分布具有较强的稳定性，存在一定的路径依赖和空间锁定特征。相对长度由东部沿海向西北内陆及西南地区递增，弯曲度表现出相似的空间分异特征；④妇女发展脆弱性是多因素交互作用的结果。经济发展水平、城镇化、全球化和教育事业发展对于降低妇女发展脆弱性具有积极作用。政府行为的驱动效应对脆弱性存在抑制作用，但未通过显著性检验。

WOMEN'S VULNERABILITY IN CHINA: MEASUREMENT,SPACE-TIME EVOLUTION AND DRIVING MECHANISM

It has become an important task for China to integrate gender consciousness into the mainstream of social development and decision-making, optimize the environment for women's development, and striving for the all-round development of women to complete the building of a moderately prosperous society in all respects. Based on human development index (HDI), this paper constructs a vulnerability assessment model of Chinese women's development from three dimensions of health, education and employment. Taking the developmental vulnerability of women as a measure, the regional differences, spatial distribution and spatiotemporal interaction characteristics of Chinese women's survival and development level from 2006 to 2016 were analyzed by using the research methods of variation coefficient, LISA time path and spatio-temporal transition. The results are summarized as follows:1) The fragility of women's development in China showed a downward trend. Whereas the Eastern China with significant internal differences and showing polarization; 2) Mainly in lowest and lower vulnerability types, which the combined ratio of the two is close to or more than 50%. 3) The relative length increases from the eastern coast to the northwest inland and southwest, and the curvature shows similar spatial differentiation; 4) The development vulnerability of Chinese women is the result of multi-factor interaction.