中国城市群空间结构演化的影响因素分析——基于铁路客运的功能联系视角

以中国13个城市群为研究对象，采用铁路客运班次构造多中心指数来表征基于功能联系的城市群空间结构，在分析城市群空间结构演变基础上重点分析其影响因素。研究发现，基于功能联系视角的城市群空间结构总体呈单中心化趋势，但地区差异化明显，珠三角、山东半岛和闽东南城市群已表现出多中心化特征；城市群空间结构的多中心程度随经济发展水平的提高表现为先单中心后多中心的演变过程；城市群规模的增大和城市间联系加强促进了城市群向多中心方向演化；而面积小、三产比重高的城市群更有利于形成单中心的结构；政府干预作用对城市群空间结构影响并不显著。鉴于不同城市群空间结构演化趋势不同，未来政策取向应该遵从各个城市群自身规律。

THE INFLUENCING FACTORS OF SPATIAL STRUCTURE EVOLUTION OF CITY CLUSTERS IN CHINA: BASED ON THE FUNCTIONAL LINKAGE OF RAILWAY PASSENGER TRANSPORT

City clusters are undergoing great changes and adjustments in spatial structure with the strengthening of functional links among cities, promoted by the rise of traffic flow and information flow. Therefore, taking 13 city clusters in China as the study sample, this paper collects the railway passenger transport data in even-numbered years from 1978 to 2012 and builds functional polycentricity index based on the rank-size distribution of train flow entering each city, in order to measure city clusters' spatial structure from functional linkage perspective and demonstrate their spatial evolution over time. Using fixed-effect models, we lay special emphasis on analyzing the influencing factors of their spatial evolution from the perspective of economic development, population size, population density, relation intensity, government intervention and industrial structure. We conclude that the spatial structure of city clusters presents a monocentric trend from the perspective of functional linkage. However, different city clusters have shown diversified characteristics.