对旅游业发展是否有规律的几点应答

本文坚持认为，旅游业的发展是有规律的，是趋势项、周期项、季节项和随机项4种因素的综合；旅游业发展的规律是相对的和隐含的，关键在于是否具有发现的眼光和技能；旅游地生命周期理论说明旅游发展是有规律的，股市分析的趋势线理论为其提供技术借鉴；对旅游发展规律的认识要注意时间尺度和样本的选取，由微观态的统计上升为对宏观规律的探究。中国旅游科学的发展既要面向产业发展活跃的实践，更应重视对基本规律的总结和提炼。

Some Responses to the Doubt of Whether Tourism Develops with Certain Rules

The paper insists that tourism development follows its own rules and is synthesized by four factors including trend, periodic property, and seasonal and random items. Since these rules are relative and hidden, right understanding of them depends on one＇ s vision and skills. Theories of the life cycle of resorts show the development of tourism follows certain rules and the trend curve theory applied to stock market analysis can be used as a technical reference. To understand the rules, we should pay more attention to time scale and sample selection, and researches on macro regularity based on micro statistics. The development China＇ s tourism science should be oriented at the active practices of tourism industry with more emphasis on the refining and summing up of the basic principles.