计量经济分析方法在国外旅游研究中的应用——基于ATR和TM所载文献的统计分析

本文对国外旅游界最具影响力的两大旅游研究刊物Annals of Tourism Research（ATR）（1974—2005）和Tourism Management（TM）（1980—2005）中运用计量经济分析方法的122篇文献进行了全面回顾。在对计量经济分析方法的构成情况及应用领域进行统计分析的基础上，对其在国外旅游研究中的应用演进情况做了归纳和概括。研究发现，计量经济分析方法正逐渐成为国外学者进行旅游研究的主要手段之一，其中回归模型、时间序列模型和面板数据模型是最常用的手段；方法的应用主要集中在旅游需求研究方面，其次是旅游产业与环境关系研究、旅游供给研究。从研究方法的应用演进来看，经过30多年的发展，从静态的零星运用到比较系统的、动态的多种方法的整合运用，计量经济分析方法在旅游研究中的应用日渐成熟。

The Application of Econometric Methods in Tourism Research Abroad:Based on a Statistic Analysis of the literatures of Annals of Tourism Research and Tourism Management

This study aims at carrying out a content analysis related to the application of econometric methods in tourism research.To accomplish this objective,the paper analyzed the contents of 122 relevant articles published in two leading tourism journals: Annals of Tourism Research(ATM)(1974-2005) and Tourism Management(TM)(1980-2005).The results show that econometric methods have been increasingly used in tourism research abroad.Specifically,regression models are the most commonly used method followed by time series analysis models and panel data models.It was found that 68 articles focused on tourism demand research.In contrast,only 20 investigated the supply side of tourism.Approximately a quarter of the 122 articles examined in the present study explored into the causal relationships between tourism expansion and economic,social,and environmental development.It appears that the use of econometric methods in tourism research has gradually advanced from static and sporadic applications to dynamic and integrated applications in the past three decades.