基于本底趋势线与小波函数的中国旅游成长及多周期分析

本文依据本底趋势线理论和小渡分析理论，对近20年来中国入境及国内旅游客流量成长过程进行了滤波分析，提取了旅游成长过程中的趋势项和不同时间尺度的周期项。结果发现：（1）近20多年来我国入境和国内旅游的成长，在年际尺度上均可分解为趋势项、周期项和事件冲击项3个部分；（2）入境旅游和国内旅游客流量的增长趋势存在一定的差异，入境旅游长期趋势为直线增长，国内旅游长期趋势为指数增长；（3）入境旅游存在2个时间尺度的客流量波动周期，较长的周期为20年，较短的周期为6年，而国内旅游只存在一个10年左右的周期。最后，本文对本底趋势线理论与小波分析方法在旅游成长及波动周期分析上的差异进行了比较。

An Analysis of China's Tourism Growth and Multi-cycle: Based on Natural Trend Curve Theory and Wavelet Analysis

Based on natural trend curve theory and wavelet analysis, the paper analyzed the data of nearly 20 years＇ inbound and domestic tourist volume by using trend and cycle at different times as index. The result shows that： ① Annual scale of China＇s inbound and domestic tourism growth process can be divided into 3 parts ： trend, cycle, and impacts of the incidents. ② The trend and cycles of inbound tourism are different from the domestic. Inbound tourism grows lineally while domestic grows exponentially. ③ Inbound tourism experienced two different kinds of cycles. The large cycle is about 20 years, and the small is about 6 years while there is only one kind of cycle in domestic tourism, which is a 10 year span.