多尺度下中国人口老龄化风险集群的时空格局——Flexible空间扫描计量方法的应用

运用Flexible空间扫描计量方法，对比分析了省、市和县域尺度上的老龄化风险集群的时空格局。发现：老龄化成为全国人口结构转型的主旋律，少子化成为新常态，老龄化区域非均衡加剧，并存多种区域模式；三种尺度识别出的风险集群都集中分布于东南半壁；集群的风险程度与地域范围随时间不断扩大，但集群间的风险差异趋于缩小。总体而言，尺度越小，识别出的集群分布越分散，定位越精确，风险越高，差异越大。针对不同地区的人口-经济发展情况，提出保障生育，发展养老产业，基本公共服务均等化，就地、近城镇化等的老龄化风险应对策略。

TIME-SPACE PATTERNS OF RISK CLUSTER OF POPULATION AGING IN CHINAAT MULTI-SCALES: THE APPLICATION OF FLEXIBLE SPATIAL SCAN STATISTICS

Population aging is one of the most heated topics among domestic and foreign societies which has been attached numerous attention by scholars from variant research fields. On the one hand, under the context where the social and spatial reconfiguration take places, population aging in China tends to be increasingly complicated, the new normalcy characterized as getting old before being rich is throwing a great threaten to the sustainable development. On the other hand, due to the fact that regions vary in development stage and geographical condition, population aging in China displays its strikingly spatial and temporal imbalance. Using Flexible Spatial Scan Statistic, this paper scrutinized spatiotemporal disparity in aging risk clusters at provincial, prefectural and county scales. The authors found that, aging has become the main melody of Chinese population transformation, and low birth rate has been the new normal at nation-wide. The regional imbalance comes to be increasingly worsened and there exist diverse regional models. All three scales share such common features as followings:aging risk clusters are spatially concentrated on the southeast part of China, the risk degree and distributional area become larger, but the gap among clusters comes to be narrowed. Generally, the smaller spatial scale Flexible Spatial Scan Statistic adopts, the more scattered, precise and higher-risk clusters will be identified, and gaps between them become enlarged.