中国拐卖儿童犯罪时空格局演变及其影响因素

中国的拐卖儿童问题给家庭和社会带来了深重灾难。本文基于公益平台获取的1960-2015年被拐儿童数据记录,综合运用数理统计、探索性空间数据分析和宏观环境分析等方法,针对拐出侧从宏观视角,探讨中国拐卖儿童犯罪的时空格局演变及其影响因素。主要结论为：①1960年以来,拐卖儿童犯罪经历了极低发期、快速增长期、高发稳定期和低发稳定期四个阶段。被拐男童多于女童,犯罪量夏半年高于冬半年。②1960-2015年以来犯罪高发地区主要是以四川为核心的西南地区,拐卖犯罪由“数地高发”向“全国频发”的格局演进。拐卖犯罪存在明显的区域集聚特征,热点省份随时间的推移,呈现由“华东”→“西南”→“东南”的演变轨迹。③地理条件、法律政策、经济发展、文化观念等方面的时空不均衡是犯罪时空格局演变的主要影响因素。

SPATIO-TEMPORAL CHANGE AND INFLUENCING FACTORS OF TRAFFICKING IN CHILDREN IN CHINA

Trafficking in children in China is not only a serious crime phenomenon but a complicated social phenomenon. Trafficking infringes upon the personal rights of citizens and brings deep disaster to the family and society. The occurrence of trafficking in children has obvious time and space attributes. Analysis of spatio-temporal change and influencing factors of the crime in China is very important for future crime research and prevention. Based on related records from the online public platform "Baobeihuijia", this study examines the general characteristics and development trend of trafficking in children in China. The results are as follows:Firstly, the crime can be roughly divided into four stages since 1960:very low period (1960-1973), rapid growth period (1974-1987), high stable period (1988-2001), and low stable period (2001-2015). Secondly, for many years the high frequency areas are mainly concentrated in the southwest region with Sichuan as the core area, and the trafficking basically presents the evolution from "several provinces at a high level" to " the whole country in a high frequency". Thirdly, spatial autocorrelation analysis results show that trafficking in children in China has obvious characteristics of regional agglomeration. Fourthly, the uneven geographical conditions, the imbalance of the law and policy, the unbalanced development of economy and the unbalanced cultural concept across the whole country have effect on the distribution differences of trafficking in children in China.