基于生态文明的县域环境-经济-社会耦合脆弱性与协调性研究——以黑龙江省齐齐哈尔市为例

选取2005-2015年齐齐哈尔市县域环境、经济和社会数据，构建包含三大子系统，9项要素，27个指标的县域环境-经济-社会系统评价体系，采用熵值法和耦合协调度模型，通过细分判别标准对其生态文明及内部三大子系统的协调性进行评价；采用脆弱性模型对2015年县域环境、经济与社会的脆弱性分级；运用ArcGIS对2015年生态文明指数和内部协调性可视化对比。结果表明：①齐齐哈尔多数县域生态文明质量逐年提升，但远未达良好水平；②县域环境、经济与社会失调发展年份居多，协调年份极少，社会滞后型成为影响协调发展的主要类型；③县域耦合脆弱性问题严峻，部分县域脆弱性出现两极分化；④县域生态文明建设与三大子系统耦合协调程度不匹配现象严重，协调度有待提升。

THE VULNERABILITY AND COORDINATION OF THE COUPLING OF ENVIRONMENT,ECONOMY AND SOCIETY IN COUNTY: A CASE OF QIQIHAR CITY OF HEILONGJIANG PROVINCE

Based on the theory of ecological civilization and the interaction mechanism of county environmental protection, economic development and social progress, taking Qiqihar city of Heilongjiang province as an example, this research constructs the county ecological civilization evaluation system with 27 indicators, 9 elements, three sub-systems by selecting the ecological environment, economic and social data of counties from 2005 to 2015. Then using the entropy method and the coupling coordination model, criterion by subdivision, this research evaluates the ecological civilization development level and coordination of the coupling within the three subsystems including eco-environment, economy and society of each county in Qiqihar city. Finally, the spatial patterns, comparison of ecological civilization level and coordination of the coupling are revealed by using the ArcGIS software. The results indicate:1) The quality of ecological civilization in most counties of Qiqihar city has improved year by year, but it has not reached a good level. 2) In most years, the development of the three subsystems is imbalance, and few years are coordinated. 3) The vulnerability of the coupling in Qiqihar county is serious, or even polarization. 4) The mismatch between the county ecological civilization construction and the coordination of three subsystems is extremely serious.