基于综合可达性的北京城市增长模拟与管控模式优化

社会经济活动的空间重构与交通设施配置息息相关,可达性成为优化城市空间结构,调控城市空间开发的重要手段。在以矢栅一体化的综合可达性测度并构建城市增长模型的基础上,对北京城市增长进行了成功模拟,透视了基于综合可达性导向发展模式的基本特征与主要问题,并提出了基于综合可达性的城市增长调控模式优化方案。研究发现：①城市增长密集发生在建成区周围可达性优越的区域,随着与城市中心的距离增加,城市增长的概率降低,反映了北京单中心的城市发展模式;②受城市规划与交通设施规划失调影响,可达性提升程度越大的区域并不一定带来更高的城市增长开发概率,严重削弱了可达性对城市增长的引导作用;③基于综合可达性的城市增长调控模式的优化方案,要以交通设施规划为基础,并合理耦合空间规划,才能更为有效地引导城市空间良性增长并预防规划失效。基于综合可达性的城市增长模型建立与调控模式优化方案的提出,对于确立与提升交通引导城市增长的基础性地位,优化城市空间结构具有重要的理论和现实意义。

DYNAMIC SIMULATION AND OPTIMIZATION CONTROL OF LAND USE CHANGE BASED ON TRANSPORTATION ACCESSIBILITY: A CASE STUDY OF BEIJING

With rapid construction of transportation facilities, "Temporal Distance" is shortened, which causes changes in urban spatial structure. The spatial restructuring of social economic activities is closely related to transportation facilities. Accessibility has become an important means of optimizing urban spatial structure and regulating urban space development. Based on the measure of comprehensive accessibility by the integration of vector and raster and the construction of urban growth model, a successful simulation of urban growth in Beijing is carried out. On this basis, this article analyses the basic characteristics and main problems of the comprehensive accessibility-oriented development pattern, and proposes the optimization plan of regulation mode of urban growth based on comprehensive accessibility. The results show that:1)Accessibility enlarges the space scope of urban, but the degree of accessibility improvement has obvious spatial differences. Intensive urban growth occurs around the built-up areas with superior accessibility. 2)Different traffic systems determine the different urban land use patterns and expansion models. 3)The optimization plan of regulation mode of urban growth based on comprehensive accessibility needs to base on the transportation facilities planning, and implements coupling with spatial planning reasonably.