经济韧性视角下城镇产业演化的路径依赖与路径创造——基于东莞市樟木头、常平镇的对比分析

在经济韧性视角下，本文基于路径依赖与路径创造理论构建了一个研究城镇产业衰落与转型的分析框架，进而对东莞市樟木头与常平的产业发展路径进行详细梳理和对比分析，探讨地理区位、产业结构等初始条件相似的城镇受到相同外部冲击时出现韧性差异的原因，包括地方制度、技术变革、经济结构、劳动力结构、社会文化氛围等。据此提出转型升级对策：寻找新主导产业，提升经济主体潜力与联系；科学规划空间结构，调整存量用地功能，提高土地利用效率，全面升级硬件设施；重塑强调风险管控与危机意识的社会文化氛围。通过建立演化经济地理学与经济韧性相结合的实证研究范式，本文为产业结构单一城镇提供了具有借鉴意义的韧性增强途径和路径创造方式。

PATH DEPENDENCE AND PATH CREATION OF INDUSTRIAL EVOLUTION ABOUT TOWNS FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF ECONOMIC RESILIENCE: BASED ON THE COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS ABOUT ZHANGMUTOU AND CHANGPING IN DONGGUAN

There have been a large number of studies along the evolutionary economic geography theory since the 1990s, including the theory of path dependence and path creation. On the basis of a detailed investigation on the path of industry development of Zhangmutou town and Changping town in Dongguan city, Guangdong province, we then conducted the comparative analysis. Due to the influences of the global financial crisis in 2008, these two towns have exhibited different economic growth path. The theory of economic resilience provides us with better knowledge to understand such economic growth differentiation. Therefore, this paper aimed to discuss the reasons why the towns with same geographical proximity and similar industrial structure, present huge differences in economic resilience and development path, when they had the same external impact. In the detailed comparative study, we concluded that there are five major reasons, including local political and administrative system, technological change, economic structure, labor structure, and socio-cultural environment. Owing to the huge differences among those factors, the gap of adaptability and transformation capability for economic recovery and redevelopment between the two towns expanded rapidly. Finally, the two towns developed their industries along different paths, which resulted in different path creation.