The Kosovo—and Montenegro—effect |
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| Authors: | RICK FAWN |
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| Institution: | 1. Senior Lecturer in International Relations at the University of St Andrews.;2. This article was written under the auspices of the generous funding of the British Academy and during a research leave granted by the University of St Andrews. I also wish to thank Murad Ismayilov and the refereeing and editorial assistance of the journal. Needless to say, the views expressed are my own. |
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| Abstract: | The post‐communist space continues to generate new internationally recognized states while incubating unrecognized but de facto states. Recent movement in the Balkans—the independence of Montenegro and the arduous deliberations over Kosovo's future —have variously encouraged other secessionist people and would‐be states, particularly in the former Soviet Union. This article analyses the impact of developments in Montenegro and Kosovo on several levels, including: their usage by de facto states; the reactions to them by central governments; Russian policy; and western and intergovernmental responses to these challenges. The article further argues that the Russian position on Kosovo and on the so‐called ‘frozen’ or unsettled conflicts neighbouring Russia could ultimately backfire on it. Western policy towards both Kosovo and on the post‐Soviet frozen conflicts will be best served by signalling to Russia, irrespective of the exact form of Kosovo's independence, that neither its own interests nor broader western‐Russian relations are served by using or reacting to any Kosovo ‘precedent’. |
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