流动人口核心家庭的迁移模式分析——基于家庭生命周期的视角

当前我国的人口流动步入新的发展阶段，流动人口的迁移模式呈现出明显的家庭化趋势，在此背景下迁移选择是否和流动人口家庭的生命周期阶段息息相关呢？未来的市民化政策需要因此而迭代升级为家庭视角吗？文章使用中国25所城市的流动人口调查数据构建Logistic回归模型，从家庭生命周期阶段、个体特征、家庭特征和城市流动特征四个维度探究影响核心家庭迁移模式的具体因素和相关程度，结果显示：家庭的生命周期阶段是流动模式的重要影响因素，核心家庭在新婚期和学龄前期举家流动的概率最大，当孩子步入适龄教育阶段，流动人口的家庭界面面临分散的可能性增加，导致留守子女和留守妇女的社会现象持续，当子女毕业或就业时家庭成员团聚的概率再次增加。未来市民化政策中应当围绕流动人口的家庭出台更全面的实施方案。

STUDY ON MIGRATION MODE IN NUCLEAR FAMILY OF MIGRANTS: BASED ON THE PERSPECTIVE OF FAMILY LIFE CYCLE THEORY

With the transformation and development of China's economy and the continuous advancement of new urbanization, the overall scale and internal structure of the floating population have undergone new changes. At present, China's population migration has stepped into a new stage of development, and the migration mode of the floating population shows an obvious trend of family. Is the migration choice closely related to the life cycle stage of the floating population family? Does the future citizenization policy need to be upgraded to a family perspective? Using the data of 25 cities in China, this paper constructs a logistic regression model, and explores the specific factors and relevant degrees that affect the migration mode of nuclear family from four dimensions: family life cycle stage, individual characteristics, family characteristics and urban mobility characteristics. The results show that: the life cycle stage of family is an important factor in the migration mode, the probability of family mobility in the newly married period and in the early school age is the largest. When the children enter the stage of school-age education, the family interface of the floating population faces the possibility of dispersion, which leads to the social phenomenon of left behind children and left behind women to continue, and the probability of family reunion increases again when the children graduate or work. In addition to the comprehensive influence of family life cycle, the migration pattern of nuclear family population is closely related to the individual characteristics of husband and wife, family characteristics and urban mobility characteristics.