乡村振兴导向下乡村发展能力的多维测度及时空交互特征

乡村振兴要求走乡村内生性发展道路，客观认知乡村发展能力的时空分异格局和交互关系对乡村振兴战略实施具有重要意义。本文从农业产业发展、农村基础建设和农民社会生活三个维度构建测度指标体系，并引入面板向量自回归模型识别影响乡村发展能力的敏感因素，以此测度乡村发展能力指数，进而采用探索性时空数据分析方法揭示乡村发展能力的时空交互特征。结果表明：(1)我国中部地区多维乡村发展能力提升，但呈明显的空间异质性，不同维度间差异化显著；(2)中部地区多维乡村发展能力局域空间格局呈现较强的动态性并整体表现出较强的空间依赖关系；(3)邻接地级市多维乡村发展能力的时空交互网络以正向关联为主，局部空间呈差异化的竞合态势。

MULTI-DIMENSIONAL MEASUREMENT AND SPATIO-TEMPORAL INTERACTION CHARACTERISTICS OF RURAL DEVELOPMENT CAPACITY UNDER THE ORIENTATION OF RURAL REVITALIZATION

Rural revitalization calls for endogenous development in rural areas. It is of great significance to objectively understand the spatial and temporal differentiation pattern and interaction relationship of rural development capacity for the implementation of rural revitalization strategy. Based on prefecture-level cities data in six provinces of the central China, this paper constructs the measurement index system from three dimensions of agricultural industry development, rural infrastructure construction and farmer social life and introduces panel vector autoregressive model, so as to identify sensitive factors affecting rural development capacity and measure multidimensional rural development capability index. Then it uses exploratory spatiotemporal data analysis method to reveal the spatio-temporal interaction characteristics of multidimensional rural development capability. The main conclusions are as follows. Firstly, during the study period, the multidimensional rural development capability in the six provinces of central China had been proved, however, there is obvious spatial heterogeneity and significant differences among different dimensions. Secondly, the multi-dimensional rural development capacity shows strong dynamics in regional spatial pattern and strong spatial dependence overall. Thirdly, the spatio-temporal interaction network of multidimensional rural development capacity in neighboring cities is mainly positive correlation, and local space presents different competitive and cooperative situation.