百年来国际组织机构地理位置的时空演化:集聚模式与影响因素

国际组织机构在构建国家软实力、拓展国家利益、塑造全球治理机制具有不可替代的战略意义。论文基于国际协会联盟数据，运用矢量数据符号法和负二项回归模型对1918年至2017年成立的26457个国际组织机构地理位置的时空演化规律进行深入研究，主要结论如下：①百年来国际组织机构累计数量呈几何数量级增长了1200倍，整体呈缓慢上升又陡然下降的演化趋势；②国际组织机构的空间分布极不均衡，具有等级扩散的演化规律，优先选择区域中心国家的中心城市；③国际组织机构具有永久中立国、强国和区域中心国三种集聚模式；④回归显示国家的经济、文化和科技影响力及历史性组织文化遗产在0.01水平上与国际组织机构地理布局呈显著的正相关关系。

SPATIO-TEMPORAL EVOLUTION OF GEOGRAPHICAL LOCATION OF INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATION INSTITUTIONS IN THE PAST 100 YEARS: AGGLOMERATION MODEL AND INFLUENCING FACTORS

International organization institutions have irreplaceable strategic significance in building national soft power, shaping global governance mechanism, and expanding national interests. Based on the data of UIA, this paper uses vector data notation and negative binomial regression model to conduct an in- depth study on the spatial-temporal evolution, agglomeration model and their influencing factors of the geographical location of 26,457 international organization institutions established from 1918 to 2017. The results are as follows.First, in the past 100 years, the cumulative number of international organizations has increased by 1200 times in geometric order. Second, the spatial distribution of international organization institutions is extremely uneven. Thirdly, international organization institutions have permanent neutral country agglomeration model, strong country agglomeration model and regional central country agglomeration model. Finally, the regression results show that economic influence, cultural influence, scientific and technological influence, and historical organizational cultural heritage of a country have a significant positive correlation with the geographical agglomeration of international organization institutions at the level of 0.01.