魏晋南北朝时期疫灾时空分布规律研究

魏晋南北朝时期是中国历史上的第一个疫灾高峰期,疫灾频度平均为21.0%,其中西晋时期疫灾最为频繁,疫灾频度高达34.6%。夏季是疫灾流行的最主要的季节,约41%的疫灾发生在夏季。疫灾周期具有波幅越来越小、波长越来越短的趋势。在空间分布上,疫灾范围有逐步扩大的趋势,疫灾重心有由北向南迁移的趋势,都城所在地为疫灾多发区,都城区位的变迁影响着疫灾重心的变迁。三国时期的疫灾重心在河南,西晋时期的疫灾重心在陕西与河南,东晋以后的疫灾重心在江苏。总体来看,经济相对发达、人口相对稠密、战争相对频仍的黄河中下游地区、长江中下游地区以及它们之间的淮河流域是魏晋南北朝时期疫灾的主要流行区域。

On the temporal-spatial distribution of epidemic disasters during the 220-581 period

The period 220-581 A.D. from Wei through Jin to South-North dynasties, with an average 21.0% epidemic frequency, is the first climax of epidemic disasters in the history of China, especially in the Western Jin Dynasty; the epidemic frequency is up to 34.6%. The prevalence of epidemics seemed more preferable to summer; about 41% accident of epidemic disasters in the period took place in summer. The change of epidemic periodicity showed a trend of less and less amplitude along with shorter and shorter wavelength. In the spatial distribution, the prevailing areas of epidemic disasters were increasingly enlarged, and the central region of epidemic disasters tended to shift towards south from north. The area around certain capital city usually had most frequent epidemic accidents, therefore, the central region of epidemic prevalence in the Three Kingdom Period (220-264A.D.) was located in Henan province with capital Luoyang city, in the Western Jin dynasty (265-316A.D.) in Shaanxi province with Xi’an capital city and Henan, in the East Jin through South-North dynasties (317-518A.D.) in Jiangsu province with capital Nanjing city. As a whole, the main regions of epidemic prevalence in this period had covered the mid-lower Yellow River valley, the mid-lower Yangtze River valley, and the Huaihe River between them, where there were relatively developed economy, densed population and frequent chaos then.