江苏省县域经济集聚和收敛的空间计量分析

通过探索性空间数据分析和空间计量分析方法,以实际人均GDP为测度指标,对江苏省65个县市的经济空间集聚、增长收敛性以及收敛机制进行讨论。研究发现1993-2009年实际人均GDP显示出越来越高的全局正相关,局部空间相关性也有增强的趋势。空间计量分析结果表明江苏省县域经济存在着β收敛,分时段研究为不同研究时段选择恰当的空间收敛模型后,收敛速度加快。技术扩散收敛机制和资本收敛机制分别在研究区间的前期和后期占主导作用,收敛机制的转变与江苏省在20世纪90年代末开始实行的区域协调发展政策密切相关。

SPATIAL ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF REGIONAL ECONOMIC CONCENTRATION AND CONVERGENCE IN JIANGSU PROVINCE

By using the approach of exploratory spatial data analysis and spatial econometric methods,the Spatial Correlation and convergence of economic growth among the 65 counties of Jiangsu province are tested. (1)Through calculated Moran's I,the study find the real GDP per capita in 1993-2009 years show more and more global positive correlation,and Local spatial correlation has strengthened. Moran's I has the tendency of increase slightly,it increases from 0.6533 in 1993 to 0.7285 in 2003,the highest level. Moran's I value fluctuate in 0.72 in the next few years. This shows that the spatial concentration of the economy in Jiangsu Province should stabilize behind its growth. (2)Economy of Jiangsu Province has become increasingly strong spatial autocorrelation,high value areas concentrate in the southern,low value areas concentrate in the North region,and the number of concentration has increased,significance level of the regional spatial concentration greatly increased.(3)If using the traditional β-convergence equation would make the estimated results appear biased and inconsistent. So this required compare Lagrange multipliers to test the use of spatial lag model or spatial error model. The period 1993-2000 and 1993-2009,the spatial lag model is the best model; the period 2001-2009,the spatial error model is the optimal model. Spatial econometric analysis showed that the economy in Jiangsu Province exist β convergence,the results are statistically more significant than the traditional method of measuring,and the convergence is faster. Sub-period study found that different space-time the models of convergence are different,there are differences in the convergence rate too. (4)From the convergent mechanism,the convergence of technology diffusion expounded by the new growth theory is dominant during the early period of the study period. Investment marginal return rate decreased emphasized by neoclassical growth theory is dominant during the later period of the study period. These studies are instructive on the establishment of regional economic policy.