中国收缩城市土地利用效率及其影响因素研究

依据人口统计数据与NPP-VIIR夜间灯光影像识别出2013-2017年中国收缩城市，运用超效率SBM模型测算收缩城市土地利用效率，并构建Tobit模型分析其影响因素。结果发现：①2013-2017年，收缩城市土地利用效率均值降低了1.44%，且各年份均低于增长城市与全部城市。实现土地有效利用的收缩城市占比较小，大多数城市土地利用效率处于中低水平，还有较大的提升空间。②东北、东部、中部、西北与西南地区收缩城市土地利用效率存在明显差异。③人均外商直接投资、人均GDP、城市经济地位、非农产业占比、产业高级化水平、政府作用、医疗水平、人口密度、土地市场化水平、每万人大学生数对收缩城市土地利用效率提升具有积极影响，而城市登记失业率具有消极影响。

URBAN LAND USE EFFICIENCY AND INFLUENCING FACTORS OF SHRINKING CITIES IN CHINA

Exploring the urban land use efficiency and influencing factors of shrinking cities can provide a scientific basis for promoting the sustainable use of land resources, optimizing the pattern of national land space and promoting regional high-quality development. According to the demographic data and NPP-VIIR nighttime lights images, the shrinking cities in China from 2013 to 2017 were identified. The super efficiency SBM model was used to calculate the urban land use efficiency of shrinking cities, and Tobit model was constructed to analyze the influencing factors. The results showed that:1) From 2013 to 2017, the average urban land use efficiency of shrinking cities decreased by 1.44%, which was lower than that of growth cities and all cities in each year. To achieve the effective contraction of urban land use, the proportion of cities is relatively small, and most of the city's urban land use efficiency is in the low and medium level, and there is still a large space for improvement. 2) There are obvious differences in urban land use efficiency of shrinking cities among Northeast, East, Central, northwest and southwest China. 3) Per capita foreign direct investment, per capita GDP, urban economic status, proportion of non-agricultural industries, industrial upgrading level, government role, medical level, population density, land marketization level and the number of college students per 10000 people have a positive effect on the contraction of urban land use efficiency, while the urban registered unemployment rate has a negative impact.