Earthquake Risk Scenarios in Urban Areas: A Review with Applications to the Ciutat Vella District in Barcelona,Spain

ABSTRACT

The vulnerability index and capacity spectrum-based methods used to assess the expected physical damage in dwellings are revisited, and their main advantages and shortcomings are analyzed and discussed. Then, a vulnerability index-based method is used to assess the expected damage in the oldest district of Barcelona, Spain. The risk analysis is performed for earthquake scenarios defined by macroseismic intensities of V, V-VI, VI, VI-VII, and VII to design seismic emergency plans. According to the Spanish Seismic Code, the basic peak ground acceleration for a 475-year return period is 0.04 g, which corresponds to an intensity of VI. Thus, the expected physical damage is quantified and its impact on population and other quantities, such as debris and economic cost, are studied. In spite of the low-to-moderate seismic hazard in Barcelona, the results show that the risk is high, due to the high exposure and vulnerability of the built environment.