基于卡马格尼模型的有效城市规模研究——以中国81个城市为样本的实证分析

近年，最优城市规模的问题走到了研究的十字路口，美国学者理查德森指出实际上并不存在最优的城市规模，而只存在依赖各种因素的有效城市规模。基于此观点及城市规模膨胀所引发的新一轮学术讨论，通过梳理城市规模研究领域内的已有文献成果，对新古典主义城市规模、最优城市规模、有效城市规模等主要研究范式的优缺点进行对比分析，发现有效城市规模研究范式相比其他城市规模研究范式确实更具现实合理性，但其同时也存在一些自身的缺陷。进而，基于中国2012年81个样本城市的横截面数据，探讨了中国的有效城市规模情况，发现现阶段中国城市规模的有效性尚处于合理范围内，且同城市规模存在反向变化关系，表现出了大规模城市效率低于小规模城市的特征。

STUDY ON THE EFFECTIVE CITY SIZE BASED ON CAMAGNI MODEL:AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS ON THE 81 SAMPLE CITIES IN CHINA

Recently, the study on the issues of the optimal city size has got to the crossroads, Richardson has pointed out that it did not exist the optimal city size in fact, and only the effective city size which depend on the various influence factors existed. Based on this thought and the new academic discussion which triggered by city size expansion, through combing the previous research in the field of city size, analyzed the advantages and disadvantages of neoclassical city size research paradigm, the optimal city size research paradigm and the effective city size research paradigm, and found that compared to other city size research paradigm, the effective city size research paradigm does have realistic rationality. In addition, based on the cross section data of China's 81 sample cities in 2012, study on the effective city size through the analysis of the change of the three kinds of city cost(total city cost, average city cost and marginal city cost) and the three kinds of city revenue(total city revenue, average city revenue and marginal city revenue) which develops with the expansion of city population in China, found that the efficiency of China's city size is still in reasonable range at this stage, and the efficiency of China's city size have a reverse relationship with the city size which showing the efficiency of a larger size city is lower than a smaller size city.