我国东西部地区差异的实证研究与收敛性的R/S分析

本介绍了赫斯特指数(H)和分维值(DB)的计算方法，分析了我国改革开放以来的东西部人均GDP的差异，试图用分形理论中的R／S分析法分析1978--1999年我国基尼系数的收敛性约分形特征，得到赫斯特指数(H)和分维值(DB)，进而分析这个时间序列的发展特性，并预测我国区域经济发展差异的未来变化趋势，提出政策建议，为国家的宏观调控政策提供理论上的依据。

REGIONAL DISPARITIES DURING THE REFORM PERIOD & R/S RESEARCH ON THEIR CONVERGENCE

Historically, there are sharp disparities between provinces in China in social, economic and political aspects together with great difference in the natural environment. That is, the coastal provinces have higher development rate in social economic activities with the backup of favorable natural conditions while the inland provinces grow slower. Especially since the implementation of the opening door Strategies in China, More and more attentions from all levels of life have been focused on the disparities between the coastal and the inland areas of China. Some scholars think that the disparities between the coastal and inland provinces are widening because of the implementation of preferential strategies in these areas. Also on the problem of the convergence of the regional development disparities, there is still no agreement between researchers. Some believe that the trend of the regional disparities in the coming ten years among the three regions in China will be much wider than that of the Reform Period, but others argue that there will be more and more narrowing disparities as to the convergence of regional economy. In fact how are the regional disparities going on during the Reform Period? Are there any measures taken to control them? In this paper, the authors apply per capita GDP to measure the regional disparities. The methods of Gini Coefficient, Hausdorff Index and Dimension Value are introduced, and also analyze the regional disparities during the Reform Period. Using the R/S method of the Fractal Theory, the authors find there are fractal feature of the convergence of the Gini Coefficient during the Reform Period. Our results and suggestions are as follows: The change of the Gini Coefficient of the regional development disparities is an inverse S shaped curve, decreasing during 1978-1984 and increasing during 1985-1990. Its change during the 1990s is as same as that in the 1978 1990. Using R/S method of the Fractal Theory, the authors find the change of the regional disparities between west provinces and east provinces coincide with the change of the economic development strategies. And the trend of the increasing development disparities between them are predicted in the coming five years.