台湾民众赴大陆旅游客源市场的变动特征研究——基于市场占有率、增长率和竞争态三个维度

本文以1988～2010年台湾民众赴大陆旅游人次的统计数据为基础，从市场占有率、市场增长率和市场竞争态三个维度，对该客源市场的变动特征展开分析。结果表明：该客源市场在大陆入境旅游中的市场占有率自1990后变动相对平缓，主要围绕均线ai=3．50％作小幅变动；其市场增长率变动表现为波动幅度连续强幅、波动高度持续高峰、波动深度正负并存、平均位势总体偏高；整个市场竞争态集聚在均线di为3．50％、极差为1．59％的垂直于x轴的狭小区域内大体作上下变动。

A Study on the Change Traits of Taiwan Travelers to Mainland China: Based on Market Share,Growth Rate and Competitive State

Based on the annual data of Taiwanese visiting Mainland China during 1988 - 2010, this paper analyzed its change traits in terms of market share, growth rate and competitive state. The result shows that the market share has kept stable during 1991 - 2010 with value changes slightly around the average line ai = 3.50%. Change traits in market growth rate data tells that the amplitude has been violent, the peak high, the negative and positive values of depth coexisting, and the average growth rate of each cycle is on the high side in general. The competitive state swings in a vertical narrow interval around the average line ai = 3.50%, with the lowest 1.59%.