Effects of Vaccination and the Spatio-Temporal Diffusion of Covid-19 Incidence in Turkey |
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Authors: | Firat Bilgel Burhan Can Karahasan |
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Institution: | 1. Department of Economics, MEF University, Istanbul, 34396 Turkey;2. Department of Economics and Finance, Piri Reis University, Istanbul, 34940 Turkey |
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Abstract: | This study assesses the spatio-temporal impact of vaccination efforts on Covid-19 incidence growth in Turkey. Incorporating geographical features of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, we adopt a spatial Susceptible–Infected–Recovered (SIR) model that serves as a guide of our empirical specification. Using provincial weekly panel data, we estimate a dynamic spatial autoregressive (SAR) model to elucidate the short- and the long-run impact of vaccination on Covid-19 incidence growth after controlling for temporal and spatio-temporal diffusion, testing capacity, social distancing behavior and unobserved space-varying confounders. Results show that vaccination growth reduces Covid-19 incidence growth rate directly and indirectly by creating a positive externality over space. The significant association between vaccination and Covid-19 incidence is robust to a host of spatial weight matrix specifications. Conspicuous spatial and temporal diffusion effects of Covid-19 incidence growth were found across all specifications: the former being a severer threat to the containment of the pandemic than the latter. |
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