Migration and Changing Employment Status: A Hazard Function Analysis

The effects of different employment-status transitions on migration choices are considered from a search-theoretic perspective. A discrete-time hazard function for migration decisions is estimated on data for young males of rural origin in France. Employment-status transitions are handled as endogenous time-varying covariates. The model is estimated by distance of move. The results show that the long-distance migration hazard is significantly related to labor market variables, and, ceteris paribus, is highest among job-gainers compared to the other transition groups. The probability of contracted (long-distance) migration is found to be higher than that of speculative migration for unemployed workers, especially those who are low-educated. Evidence consistent with cumulative inertia is found for long-distance moves. Short-distance migration hazards are found to be unrelated to labor market variables (including employment-status transitions) and to display no systematic pattern of duration dependence.