经济一体化背景下的区域溢出分析

从溢出的角度研究区域间的互动关系是一个全新的视角。本文利用协方差统计模型对广东省与其他省区的溢出关系进行分析。结论是:在航空距离影响下,广东对所有省区都具有强度不同的正溢出效果,发挥了区域带动作用。在接受溢出方面,除了四川,甘肃,宁夏和黑龙江以外,其它省区对广东的溢出均表现出强度不同的正效应。对比分析广东对外溢出和获得溢出,可以看出经济水平邻近的长江三角洲地区、地理邻近省区均与广东表现出较强的相互正溢出效应。在区域间信息化缺口的影响下,广东与各区域之间溢出强度下降。

STUDY ON REGIONAL SPILLOVERS IN ECONOMIC INTEGRATION

Spillover, which is an important economic geography phenomenon under the new economic background, is a new perspective to examine relationships between different regions. The new economic growth theory contends that any region is situated in an open economic environment, and has dynamic relationship with other regions, and describes spillover as a new source of economic growth, but no empirical research has done to demonstrate the theory. This paper aims to examine the relationship between Guangdong and other domestic regions in China from the views of spillover, which is a non-market factor and has been ignored in the practical of regional cooperation. Conley and Ligon's covariance model is applied in the research to measure the regional spillovers. Also, two factors, which are the traffic distance and information lags, are adopted in the application of the model. The positive spillover means benefit and the negative spillover means deficit. What type the spillover is has great influence on the regional cooperation. The result shows that positive spillovers are found in Guangdong to the other provinces and cities like Shandong and Shanghai, but not found in Guangdong to the province of Sichuan, Gansu, Ningxia and Heilongjiang. Meanwhile, the largest positive spillovers to Guangdong come from Shanghai, Jiangsu and Zhejiang province. Through the comparative analysis of spillovers to and from Guangdong,it is found that the Yangtze River Delta, which is at the same economy development level as Pear River Delta where Guangzhou is located, has positive spillover to Guangdong vice versa. That is also true for the neighboring provinces of Guangdong including Hunan and Hainan which is in the Pan-Pearl River Delta. These are the top 2 positive spillovers. In this research, the authors analyze the factors, including traffic distance measured by the air fares and the information lag between different regions, which could lower the spillover lever, and suggest that the information facilities should be improved to ensure positive spillovers.