2000—2018年全球恐怖袭击事件危害评价及时空演变研究

本文运用模糊综合评价、K-Means聚类等方法，探讨了全球恐怖袭击事件的危害程度及时空演变特征。研究发现：①发生频次最高的年份为2010年和2011年，地区为南亚、中东和北非，袭击类型为轰炸/爆炸，国家包括印度、伊拉克、巴基斯坦等；②危害程度越高的恐怖袭击事件其集中化程度越高；一级、二级事件主要分布在中东和北非、南亚等地区，三级、四级和五级事件主要分布在南亚、中东和北非及东南亚等地区；③空间上大致分为中东、中亚和南亚三大活跃区，菲律宾群岛等九大次级活跃区，爪哇岛和苏门答腊岛等其他风险区。本文对理解恐怖主义特征以及全球共同抵制恐怖主义具有重要参考价值。

RESEARCH ON THE DAMAGE ASSESSMENT AND SPATIAL-TEMPORAL EVOLUTION OF GLOBAL TERRORIST ATTACKS FROM 2000 TO 2018

In this paper, the data recorded in the Global Terrorism Database from 2000 to 2018 are sorted out, and the damage degree and spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of the global terrorist attacks are discussed by using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and K-Means clustering. The results show that:1) The most frequent years are 2010 and 2011, and the districts are South Asia, Middle East, and North Africa. While countries with the highest frequency are India, Iraq, Pakistan, etc, and the types of attacks are bombing/explosion; 2) The higher the damage degree, the higher the concentration degree of terrorist attacks. The first-level and second-level terrorist attacks are mainly distributed in the Middle East, North Africa and South Asia, while the third-level, fourth-level and fifth-level terrorist attacks are mainly distributed in South Asia, Middle East, North Africa and Southeast Asia; 3) It can be divided into three active regions in the Middle East, Central Asia and South Asia, nine secondary active regions such as Philippine Islands, and other risk regions such as Java and Sumatra. This paper has important reference for understanding the characteristics of terrorism resisting terrorism globally.