黄山风景区客流波动的多时间尺度特征分析

基于黄山风景区1987年1月至2010年12月的月度客流数据,运用TRAMO/SEATS方法和小波分析方法分析了黄山风景区客流的季节性变化和多时间尺度特征,结果表明：黄山风景区客流季节性变化显著,不仅存在月度波动性,而且季节性波动呈现年度变化性,客流淡季过长,淡季与平季、旺季落差过大是黄山风景区面临的经营难题;具有6个月、12个月、29个月和60个月不同时间尺度的周期变化,其中12个月的周期振荡最为明显,具有全域性;另外,6个月和12个月的时间特征尺度体现了黄山风景区客流由于季节性因素形成的年内季节性变化和年间的周期性变化,而29个月和60个月的时间特征尺度初步判断为由我国旅游业波动周期、景区外围区域经济周期和危机事件冲击影响共同作用所形成.最后,本文提出了一些对应性策略.

An Analysis on Multiple Time Scale Features of the Fluctuations of Tourist Arrivals in Huangshan Scenic Areas

Based on the data of seasonal variations and multiple time scale features of tourist arrivals in Huangshan Scenic Areas during 24 years between January 1987 and December 2010, this paper makes an analysis on the seasonal variations and multiple time scale features of tourist arrivals by applying TRAMO/SEATS and wavelet analysis methods. The results show： a. the seasonal variations including monthly fluctuations and annual variability of seasonal fluctuations is significant with too long off-season and too large gap between off-season and shoulder-peak season, a problem faced by Huangshan Scenic Areas; b. there are four significant periodic variations at scales of 6 months, 12 months, 29 months and 60 months of which 12-month periodic variation is most significant and throughout all 24 years; e. 6-month and 12-month periodic variations reflected monthly changes of the year and cyclical seasonal changes of the years by effect of seasonal factors, and it was preliminarily inferred that 29-month and 60-month periodic variations were the results of interactions of tourism industry fluctuation cycle, regional economic cycle and external shocks of crisis events. The article ends with some corresponding strategies.