Reevaluating the Relationship Between In‐, Out‐, and Net Migration for Nonmetropolitan Counties: An Update on Beale's U‐Shaped Curve

The relationship of gross migration to net migration is continuously undergoing reevaluation in the literature. However, one major finding by Beale (1969) that produced the famous u‐shaped curve has received little attention, a surprising situation considering the significant changes that have taken place in rural America since 1969. In this paper I use gross migration data from IRS returns for 1995–1998, and differentiate the rates using a number of classification schemes developed by the USDA and the Census Bureau. The results show that rural America is a diverse place, and that migration rates vary tremendously depending on the geographic, economic, and social characteristics of the county. Furthermore, the relationship between gross and net migration varies much more than previously suggested, especially in negative net migration counties, a finding with implications for migration theory and public policy.