中国老年人口自评健康水平的空间分异及影响因素研究

基于2005年和2015年1%人口抽样调查资料以及2010年人口普查资料,采用ArcGIS分级制图和空间自相关分析等方法,刻画中国老年人口健康水平的时空格局及变化,并使用面板数据线性回归模型和Tobit回归模型识别影响老年人口健康水平空间分异的主要因素。结果表明:①中国老年人口健康水平存在明显的空间分异,老年人口健康水平高的地市主要分布在东南部省份、华北平原和新疆北部,老年人口健康水平低的地市主要集中在青藏高原及其周边地区;②十年间,老年人口健康水平的空间分异水平有所降低,老年人口健康水平中等的地市数量大幅增加;③老年人口健康水平呈现显著的空间正相关性,随着空间分异的缩小,空间集聚程度上升;老年人口健康水平的高—高类型区主要集中在东南部地区,低—低类型区主要分布在青藏高原及周边区域;④社会经济发展水平、人口结构、饮食习惯和自然地理因素是影响老年人口健康水平空间分异的重要因素,东部、中部和西部地区老年人口健康水平的影响因素存在显著的差异。

SPATIAL DIFFERENCE AND INFLUENCING FACTORS OF SELF-RATED HEALTH LEVEL OF OLD PEOPLE IN CHINA

Using classification mapping and spatial autocorrelation analysis of ArcGIS, 1% population sampling survey data in 2005and 2015 and census data in 2010 are employed in this study to disclose the spatial and temporal patterns and changes of the health level of the aging population in China. Besides, this paper used random effects linear model and Tobit regression model of panel data to identify the main factors affecting spatial differentiation of health level of old people. The results are as followed: 1) There are obvious spatial differences in health level of old people in China. The cities where older peopleenjoy high health level are mainly distributed in Southeastern provinces, North China Plain, Northeast China Plain and the north of Xinjiang; 2) In the past 10 years, the spatial differentiation level of older people's health has decreased. And the number of cities with moderate health level of older people has increased significantly. 3) There is a significant positive spatial correction on the health level of old people. With spatial differentiation shrinking, spatial agglomeration rises. 4) Social and economic development level, population structure, dietary habitsand natural geographical factors are important factors affecting the spatial differentiation of old people health level, and influencing factors of elderly health varied significantly among different regions.