枢纽经济及其发展机制——以中国交通枢纽经济为例

枢纽经济是当前很多省份的重要区域发展战略,但是对枢纽经济内涵、发展机制等核心问题的讨论还不足以指导现实枢纽经济发展。文章构建并检验枢纽经济的发展机制,一方面界定枢纽经济内涵,从系统论的自组织和他组织视角使用区域循环累积因果模型推演出枢纽经济发展的四个阶段;另一方面以交通枢纽经济为例使用省级2007—2017面板数据检验主要变量的定量影响,并判断我国枢纽经济的当前所处阶段。主要结论:枢纽经济发展受经济系统自组织和政府他组织影响,是由初始变化形成阶段、次级强化形成阶段、产业竞合上升发展阶段、成熟阶段组成的循环累积因果过程;经验检验表明劳动力数量、公共基础设施配套、制度创新和技术水平显著影响枢纽经济;当前我国枢纽经济发展处于初始形成阶段,政府政策是触发关键;提高丝绸之路经济带沿线西部省份的枢纽数量和质量能有效拉动枢纽经济发展。

HUB ECONOMY AND ITS DEVELOPMENT MECHANISM: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY TAKING TRANSPORTATION HUB AS AN EXAMPLE

Hub economy is the development strategy of regional choices at present, but the discussion is not enough to guide the real economy. This paper is to construct and test the basic mechanism of hub economy. On one hand, it defines the economic connotation of the hub, and uses Circular Cumulative Causation to derive stages from the perspective of self-organization and other organizations. On the other hand, it uses provincial panel data of 2007-2017 to test the quantitative impact of main variables, and determines the specific stage of the current hub economy. Conclusions are: firstly, it defines the connotation and basic characteristics of the hub economy. Its development is influenced by the self-organization and the government organizations. Secondly, the initial changes stage, the reinforcement stage, the industrial competition and cooperation stage and the mature stage consist four stages. Finally, empirical tests show that labor, public infrastructure, institutional innovation and technology are significant variables affect hub economy. The current regional hub economy is still in the initial formation stage in which government as external stimuli are keys. The quantity and quality of hubs in the western provinces along the Silk Road Economic Belt are more effective in developing hub economy.