协同学视角下的村域贫困风险耐受度诊断——以陕西省平利县为例

以陕西省平利县79个贫困村为研究对象,基于协同理论,建立贫困风险耐受度评价模型,利用主成分分析与地理加权回归方法,辨识平利县村域贫困风险因子,评测贫困村风险耐受度,并与贫困发生率进行对比验证。结果显示:自然本底、区位—生产资料、内外助力和生产生活保障等四个贫困风险因子作用方向有所差别;全县贫困风险耐受度处于中下水平;比对贫困风险耐受指数模型与贫困发生率现状,发现二者分布趋势相似性特征明显,未出现异常现象。后续应建立针对性的风险预测和防范机制,适量减少直接性福利供给,激发农户脱贫的内生动力,提升贫困户风险抵御力和恢复力,构建持续稳定的脱贫—振兴的扶贫新模式,持续监测县域贫困村贫困风险耐受度的时序变动特征。

DIAGNOSIS OF VILLAGE POVERTY RISK TOLERANCE FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF SYNERGY THEORY: A CASE STUDY OF PINGLI COUNTY IN SHAANXI PROVINCE,CHINA

In the post-poverty era when China's precision poverty alleviation strategy is coming to an end, rural areas have achieved remarkable results in poverty alleviation. This paper takes 79 poor villages in Pingli county as examples, uses the synergy theory to establish a dynamic index system and evaluation model of poverty risk tolerance, uses the methods of PCA(Principal Component Analysis) and GWR(Geographically Weighted Regression) to identify poverty risk factors in Pingli county, measures the risk tolerance level of poor villages and then compares with the incidence of poverty. The study found that: The main risk factors of poor villages were natural-background factors, location-produce resource factors, push and pulling factors, production and living security factors; The whole county's tolerance for poverty risk is in the middlelow level, the poverty risk tolerance for poor villages in the central part is low that shows a "collapse" pattern which two-level differentiation is serious.