Fore-Arc and Back-Arc Ground Motion Prediction Model for Vrancea Intermediate Depth Seismic Source

A next generation ground motion model for the prediction of spectral accelerations both in the fore-arc and back-arc regions of the Carpathians Mountains is developed in this research for the Vrancea intermediate depth seismic source in Romania. This ground motion prediction equation (GMPE) is an updated version of the model given in Vacareanu et al. 2014] and is applicable in both the fore-arc and the back-arc regions. The strong ground motion database from which the prediction model is derived consists of over 700 triaxial accelerograms from Vrancea subcrustal seismic events, as well as from other intermediate-depth earthquakes produced in other seismically active regions in the world. The applicability of this ground motion prediction model in both the fore-arc and the back-arc region is tested using the analysis of residuals. Moreover, the appropriateness of this GMPE for soil classes B and C defined in EN 1998-1, as well as for average soil conditions is investigated. All results suggest that this model is an improvement of the previous versions of ground motion prediction equations for Vrancea intermediate-depth seismic source and its use in both the fore-arc and the back-arc regions make it a reliable candidate for more accurate seismic hazard studies of Romania.