| 旅游地生命周期的数学模型比较研究 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 张骁鸣,薛丹.旅游地生命周期的数学模型比较研究[J].旅游科学,2009,23(4):6-12. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 张骁鸣 薛丹 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 中山大学旅游学院,广东,珠海,519082 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金青年项目《旅游发展与乡村社会经济空间演化机制研究》 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 本文分析了Logistic模型和Gompertz模型用于拟合旅游地生命周期曲线的内部数理逻辑，并通过收集中国部分省级行政区、重要旅游城市、著名旅游景区近30年的入境旅游人数统计资料，比较了上述两种数学模型对于拟合中国不同尺度旅游地演化过程的适用性，最后辨证地说明了旅游地生命周期假说的学术价值。
|
| 关 键 词： | 旅游地生命周期 Logistic模型 Gompertz模型 回归分析 |
A Comparative Study on two Mathematical Models of Tourism Area Life Cycle |
| |
| ZHANG Xiaoming,XUE Dan.A Comparative Study on two Mathematical Models of Tourism Area Life Cycle[J].Tourism Science,2009,23(4):6-12. |
| |
| Authors: | ZHANG Xiaoming XUE Dan |
| |
| Institution: | School of Tourism Management;Sun Yat-sen University;Zhuhai 519082;China |
| |
| Abstract: | The paper makes an analysis of the Logistic and Gompertz Models in the internal mathematical logic of the S-shaped curve of Tourism Area Life Cycle(TALC).With the statistics of inbound tourists in province-level administrative regions,some important tourist cities and famous tourist attractions in the past 30 years,this paper explores into the adaptability of the two models to fit with the various tourist areas.It concludes that TALC has a universal applicability to the evolution of Chinese tourism destinat... |
| |
| Keywords: | tourism area life cycle Logistic model Gompertz model regression analysis |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
