人民币汇率变动与中美贸易失衡的双重审视

本文针对中美贸易摩擦不断升级这一现状，提出在国际贸易中，由于各方更加关心以本国货币结算的贸易额度以及实物形式的贸易总量，因此只有在剔除了通货膨胀的条件下，以本国货币结算的贸易总额才能在一定程度上代表对外贸易的实物量的整体理论框架。并利用2006～2011年相关数据从中美两国各自视角对人民币汇率变动与中美贸易失衡的关系进行实证分析，揭示了两者动态关联性中更深层次的客观现实。研究结果表明：人民币汇率变动对中美贸易影响的程度和方向并不明确，人民币汇率不是中美贸易失衡的主要原因等结论。并提出政府应根据不同商品类别制订区别性政策，积极推进所有权统计体系的建立，加强亚洲国家间货币合作等政策建议。

Positivistic Research on the Relationship Between RMB Exchange Rate Floating and Sino-US Trade Imbalance

Considering the escalation of Sino-US trade imbalance, the dissertation proposes the following theoretical frameworks： in international trade,the parties concerned more of their own money to the settlement of trade credits and the physical form of the total trade; only after the elimination of inflation conditions, physical quantity in local currency settlement of foreign trade in total trade can represent a certain extent. This dissertation analyzes the relationship between RMB exchange rate floating and the Sino-US trade imbalance according to the relevant data（2006-2011）, reveals in-depth objective reality of the dynamic relation. The discussion shows that RMB exchange rate floating is not the main reason of the Sino-US trade imbalance. The extent and the direction of the dynamic relation are equivocal. This dissertation points out that the government should make distinctive policies according to different commodity categories, promote the establishment of statistical system of ownership actively and strengthen monetary cooperation with Asian countries.