中国大城市贫困研究的多种测度与多层模型分析

基于六大城市住户调查数据,采用多种贫困测度和多层模型分析的方法,探讨中国大城市居民贫困状况及其影响因素。研究发现,大城市低收入邻里的贫困状况存在较大差异,其中广州、西安的相对丢失(relative deprivation)严重且低收入群体层级结构复杂,昆明的贫困深度大,而武汉财富集聚相对明显。贫困多层模型表明低收入邻里贫困的主要影响因素仍存在于个体层面,个体在家庭制度、市场制度、国家福利供应中所表现的特征影响了贫困发生率;城市贫困同时存在邻里效应,主要体现在邻里经济状况和贫困文化的影响作用;而城市间的贫困差异亦不可忽视。

UNDERSTANDING URBAN POVERTY IN LARGE CHINESE CITIES USING MULTIPLE MEASUREMENTS AND HIERARCHICAL REGRESSION MODELS

Based on a large-scale household survey conducted in low-income neighborhoods in six large Chinese cities, this paper applies multi-measurement and hierarchical linear regression models to present different poverty profile in different cities and to examine the determinants of poverty incidence. Referring to the theory of welfare triangle proposed by Rose 1986), this paper takes the influence of household, market, and state into account to examine the mechanism of poverty incidence in Chinese cities. The empirical results reveal salient intra-urban differences in terms of the variation of poverty intensity and composition among the six cities. Guangzhou and Xi'an suffer from the severe problem of relative deprivation and their low-income groups have very complex composition. The hierarchical linear regression models demonstrate that urban poverty incidence is contingent upon variations at individual, neighborhood, and city levels. In general, neighborhood with better economic status reduces the individual's risk of urban pauperization, while neighborhood with strong poverty culture or long poverty history tends to increase the risk of pauperization.