人民币升值对中国入境旅游的影响评估——基于扩展旅游引力模型的实证分析

汇率变动通过价格效应对入境旅游需求产生影响。在人民币面临较大升值压力的背景下,探讨人民币升值对中国入境旅游的影响具有重要的现实意义。本文基于标准贸易引力模型和传统旅游引力模型,构建一个扩展的旅游引力模型,采用面板数据计量方法实证分析了人民币升值对中国入境旅游发展的影响,结果表明:人民币升值给中国入境旅游发展带来了强烈的冲击,客源国的经济发展水平及其人口规模以及中国的经济发展水平与中国入境旅游发展呈正相关关系,客源国与中国的距离则是中国入境旅游发展的一个阻碍因素。

Effect of RMB Appreciation on China' s Inbound Tourism:An Empirical Analysis Based on Extended Tourism Gravity Model

The floating of exchange rate impacts inbound tourism through price effect therefore it is of significance to discuss the effect of RMB appreciation on China＇ s inbound tourism under the background of RMB facing a lot of pressures to appreciate. Based on standard trade gravity model and conventional tourism gravity model, an extended tourism gravity model is constructed to analyze the effect of RMB appreciation on China＇ s inbound tourism with panel data. The result indicates that RMB appreciation has a distinct impact on China＇ s inbound tourism; there is a positive relation between the number of China＇ s inbound tourists and tourist generating country＇ s economic development level as well as its population. Besides, China＇ s economic development level has a positive correlation to the number of China＇ s inbound tourists. The distance between tourist generating country and China is a hindrance factor to China＇ s inbound tourism.