Spatial and temporal effects in Mexican direct elections for the chamber of deputies |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Departamento de Estadística, Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México, Río Hondo No. 1, Col. Tizapán San Angel, C.P. 01000 Mexico D.F., Mexico;2. Departamento de Ciencia Política, Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México, Río Hondo No. 1, Col. Tizapán San Angel, C.P. 01000 Mexico D.F., Mexico;1. Universidad de Monterrey, Escuela de Negocios, Departamento de Economia, Morones Prieto Av. 4500 Pte., San Pedro Garza García, Nuevo Leon, 66238, Mexico;2. Tecnologico de Monterrey, Escuela de Medicina, Morones Prieto Av, 3000, Los Doctores, Monterrey, Nuevo Leon, 64710, Mexico;3. Tecnologico de Monterrey, Escuela de Ingenieria y Ciencias, Eugenio Garza Sada Av, 2501, Tecnologico, Monterrey, Nuevo Leon, 64849, Mexico;4. Tecnologico de Monterrey, Hospital Zambrano Helion TecSalud, Av. Batallon de San Patricio 112, Real San Agustín, San Pedro Garza García, N.L., 66278, Mexico;1. Graduate School of Geography, Clark University, Worcester, MA, 01610, United States;2. Extractives@Clark, Clark University, Worcester, MA, 01610, United States;3. Natural Resources and Climate Change Program, Ford Foundation, United States;4. International Development, Community and Environment, Clark University, Worcester, MA, 01610, United States;5. Department of Geography, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, S3 7ND, England, United Kingdom;6. Auburn University of Montgomery, Montgomery, AL 36117, United States;7. Andes-Amazon Initiative, Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, Palo Alto, CA, 94304, United States;8. Luskin School of Public Policy, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, 90095, United States;9. International History, Graduate Institute for International and Development Studies, 1211 Geneva 1, Switzerland;10. Pardee School of Global Studies, Boston University, Boston, MA, 02215, United States;11. Programa Regional de Investigación sobre Desarrollo y Medio Ambiente (PRISMA), San Salvador, El Salvador;12. Department of Management of Complex Systems, University of California, Merced, CA, 95343, United States;13. Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, MD, 20742, United States;14. Graduate Institute for International Development, Geneva, Switzerland;1. Cologne Business School, Cologne, Germany;2. Global Economics & Management, University of Groningen, The Netherlands;3. Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo, Japan |
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| Abstract: | By using data of the elections for the Chamber of Deputies of 1997 and 2000 in Mexico, we fit spatial autologistic models with temporal effects to test the significance of spatial and temporal effects on those elections. The binary variable of interest is the one that indicates a win of the National Action Party (PAN) or the alliance that it formed. By spatial effect, we refer to the fact that neighbouring constituencies present dependence on their electoral results. The temporal effect refers to the existence of dependence, for the same constituency, of the result of the election with the result of the previous election. The model that we used to test the significance of spatial and temporal effects is the spatial autologistic model with temporal effects for which estimation is complex and requires simulation techniques. By defining an urban constituency as one that contains at least one population center of 200,000 inhabitants or more, among our principal results, we find that, for the Mexican election of 2000, the spatial effect is significant only when neighbouring constituencies are both urban. For the election of 1997, the spatial effect is significant independent of the type of neighbouring constituencies. The temporal effect is significant on both elections. |
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