我国旅游业发展与经济增长的关系研究——基于不同省份的个体数据和面板数据分析

本文利用个体数据和面板数据的VAR模型和格兰奇因果检验，分析我国各个省份和不同经济区域的旅游业发展与经济增长的关系。基本结论是：从面板数据分析来看，总体上二者之间存在一种长期均衡和双向因果关系，但旅游业发展对经济增长的贡献要小于经济增长对旅游业发展的贡献；我国不同经济区域之间二者的因果关系表现出较强的地理差异性，东部发达地区“经济增长对旅游业发展的影响”远大于“旅游业发展对经济增长的影响”，中部地区次之，西部地区因果关系正好相反，东北地区为“经济增长影响旅游业发展”的单向因果关系；从单个省份的格兰奇因果关系看，仅13个省市的LGDP和LTOUR之间存在长期均衡关系，大部分省份存在双向因果关系，但在影响强度上有较大差异。

Research on the Relationship Between China's Tourism Development and Economic Growth: Based on an Analysis of Individual and Panel Data from Different Provinces

This article applies the VAR model of individual and panel data and the Granger Causality Test method to analyze the relationship between tourism development and economic growth in different Chinese provinces. It found is that from panel data analysis, there is a long term equilibrium and bidirectional causality relationship between them, however, economic growth contributes more to tourism development than tourism development to economic growth; that great geographical differences exist in this kind of relation in different regions： in economically developed regions in east China, economic growth contributes much more to tourism development than tourism to economy; it is the same, only a little less in the middle regions, and vise visa in west regions; and that there is a unidirectional causality relationship in the three provinces in north east China. With the analysis of individual data, it found that long term equilibrium relationship lies in 13 provinces only while a bidirectional causality relationship between them in most provinces with great difference in impact strength.