中国城市化水平的综合判断

在测度和评价城市化水平高低时应该对人口城市化水平和城市人口绝对规模进行综合判断。学界通常用市区非农业人口口径来计算城市化水平,对城市外来人口考虑不够。对这种偏小的口径进行修正后发现中国的城市化水平至多略低于同等收入下的国际城市化水平。从城市人口与城市经济的适应程度看,中国的城市劳动生产率与发展状况类似的国家相比有偏低的倾向。因此,与流行的看法相反,中国的城市化水平与经济发展相适应的。笔者认为中国城市的存量部分已经"人满为患",未来城市化的着力点应是城市的增量部分,包括现有城市规模的扩大和新城市的设置。应进行户籍制度、土地制度、创业制度等制度创新,为城市发展提供宽松的外部环境。

A Comprehensive Appraisal of the Level of Urbanization in China

Urban researchers usually use the percentage of urban population to measure the level of urbanization in a country. In China, however, it is difficult to gain the accurate number of urban population. There are two reasons: firstly, the definition of a city is not certain in China. Chinese government has issued several designation criteria for cities and towns since 1955. Secondly, China does not establish the concept of urban statistical area, such as the SMSA in USA. These two reasons make it hard to know the real amount of urban population and the real level of urbanization in China. However, China's registration system kept continuous records of non agricultural population. For the second best choice, Chinese urban researchers usually use the non agricultural population in urban area to measure the level of urbanization in China, and they conclude that the level of urbanization in China is lower than its counterparts with the same GDP per capita. In fact, the number of non agricultural population in urban area underestimates the real amount of urban residents, because it does not include the lodging population in cities. After revising the mistake, the author found that the level of urbanization in China is equal to or at most a little less than the average level of urbanization in countries with the same GDP per capita. When putting the size of urban population and the amount of urban economy in China together, the author has a strong feeling to suspect and challenge the popular view that the level of urbanization in China is lower than its counterparts with the same GDP per capita. The author puts forward a new concept of the absolute level of urbanization to measure the adaptability of urban population with urban economy. The author thinks that cities in China are crowded now, and the emphasis of future urbanization should be placed on the planning of new cities and the appropriate expansion of existing cities, especially the big cities. Some institutional innovations must be made to provide a favorable environment for urban development.