PROSPECTS FOR SOVIET GAS EXPORTS: OPPORTUNITIES AND CONSTRAINTS |
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| Authors: | Matthew J. Sagers Arild Moe Milford Green Rune Castberg |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Soviet Geography and U.S. Census Bureau;2. Fridtjof Nansen Institute , Oslo Norway;3. University of Western Ontario , London Ontario |
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| Abstract: | This paper assesses the prospects for Soviet gas exports to Western Europe, analyzing both supply (domestic) factors, such as gas production, consumption, and transportation, and demand (foreign) factors such as gas demand and market share. This is done using a network allocation model of the Soviet gas pipeline network (for 1985, 1990, and 1995) and a country-by-country analysis of the gas market in Western Europe. In general, the outlook for increased gas exports to Western Europe, at least to the turn of the century, is rather bleak. This is mainly due to a relatively slower rate of growth of gas demand in Western Europe than projected earlier, coupled with overcontracting of gas supplies, because the USSR has enormous gas reserves, ample production, and no major pipeline bottlenecks restricting export volumes. Its huge pipeline construction program allows both domestic consumption and exports to be comfortably accommodated |
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