Economic-Geographic Prediction Of The Process Of Economic Development Of An Area (with particular reference to Irkutsk Oblast)

The present stage of economic development of Irkutsk Oblast is evaluated with a view to predicting future trends. The present stage is evaluated in terms of the economic structure of three intra-oblast regions (using Kolosovskiy's technique of energy-and-production cycles) and in terms of historical development axes reflected in settlement field potentials (see the author's paper in Soviet Geography, September 1970). Future development of the oblast is expected to be based on fuel and energy, forest, and nonferrous metal resources. The development process is said to operate both “in depth” (intensification) and “in breadth” (opening up of new areas). Development in depth, involving additional settling of high-density areas, produces pollution problems and involves the need for allocating recreation zones. Future development “in breadth” is expected in the northwest, northeast and south of the oblast, particularly along the border of Krasnoyarsk Kray, where a revision of administrative-political boundaries seems to be required. A reorientation toward the east of the oblast's predominantly westward orientation is advocated.